Rupee could decline by 8-10% if Trump secures a second term, according to an SBI report.

Rupee could decline by 8-10%

The rupee could decline by 8-10% against the U.S. dollar during Trump’s second term, according to an SBI research report, with the Indian currency recently hitting a historic low on November 11, 2024. Titled U.S. Presidential Election 2024: How Trump 2.0 Impacts India’s and Global Economy, the report suggests the rupee may experience a temporary depreciation before stabilizing.

Trump’s return to office is seen as a catalyst for select markets, but attention is shifting to broader economic effects and potential realignments in supply chains. According to the report, Trump’s administration presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While short-term risks like increased tariffs, a strong dollar, and potential restrictions on H-1B visas could create market volatility, there are long-term benefits for India, such as expanding its manufacturing sector, diversifying export markets, and enhancing economic independence.

The report notes that while the rupee could weaken, this may be beneficial for export sectors like textiles, manufacturing, and agriculture. However, depreciation could also increase import costs, especially for commodities like oil, with minimal inflation impact projected.

In addition, the report anticipates that foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns may shift, as India is now receiving FDI in diverse sectors such as renewable energy, maritime transport, and medical equipment. The Trump administration’s potential for H-1B visa restrictions could also impact Indian IT firms, potentially raising costs as companies may need to hire locally in the U.S.

SBI’s analysis concludes that while the rupee may experience fluctuations, it is unlikely to face extreme depreciation, and India’s broader economic base may provide resilience amidst the evolving U.S.-India economic relationship.

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Exclusive: Documents reveal that India’s food delivery giants Zomato and Swiggy have violated antitrust laws

Zomato & Swiggy have violated antitrust laws

An investigation by India’s Competition Commission (CCI) found that food delivery giants Zomato & Swiggy have violated antitrust laws by favoring certain restaurants through exclusive business practices, according to confidential documents reviewed by Reuters. The report revealed that Zomato secured “exclusivity contracts” with partners, offering lower commissions in return, while Swiggy assured business growth to restaurants that listed exclusively on its platform.

These exclusivity agreements between the companies and selected restaurant partners limit competition in the market, according to CCI’s investigative findings. The antitrust probe, which began in 2022 following a complaint from the National Restaurant Association of India, highlights concerns about the impact of such practices on smaller food outlets.

The confidential documents, shared with Zomato, Swiggy, and the complainant in March 2024, have not been previously disclosed. After Reuters’ report, Zomato’s shares dropped 3%, though they were flat earlier in the day. Swiggy’s IPO prospectus lists this investigation as an “internal risk,” warning that any violation of the Competition Act could result in significant fines.

Swiggy informed investigators that its “Swiggy Exclusive” program was phased out in 2023, though it plans to introduce a similar program called “Swiggy Grow” in non-metro areas. Both Swiggy and Zomato have transformed India’s food delivery landscape as smartphone use and online ordering surged, listing hundreds of thousands of outlets on their platforms.

The investigation found that both companies also required restaurants to maintain pricing parity, reducing market competition by preventing discounts on other platforms. Zomato was noted for enforcing price restrictions, sometimes with penalties for non-compliance. Swiggy allegedly warned some partner restaurants that their rankings would suffer if they didn’t follow price parity.

The final phase of the CCI case involves a decision from its leadership, which is still evaluating the investigation’s findings to determine any potential penalties or required adjustments to Swiggy’s and Zomato’s business practices. This decision may take several weeks, and both companies could still challenge the findings.

Zomato’s stock has surged to a valuation of approximately $27 billion since its 2021 listing, while Swiggy values itself at $11.3 billion in its IPO. According to Macquarie Capital, Swiggy’s projected food order values for 2024-25 are $3.3 billion, about 25% lower than Zomato’s.

Both companies are rapidly expanding into the quick commerce sector, offering grocery delivery within minutes. Last month, India’s largest retail distributors’ group requested the CCI to investigate alleged predatory pricing practices in this segment by Zomato, Swiggy, and competitor Zepto.

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